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Standpoint's Ronnie Moas raises bitcoin forecast to $7,500

After calling latest surge above $4,000, Standpoint's Ronnie Moas raises bitcoin forecast to $7,500

• The stock researcher issued a $5,000 price target on bitcoin in late July, and raised that by $2,500 on Monday after the digital currency's surge to a record high over the weekend.


• Moas expects the market value of digital currencies to jump from around $140 billion to $2 trillion, and bitcoin to rise alongside that increase.


• Moas said he never held any of the stocks he issued reports on, but now all of his investments are in digital currencies.

 

Standpoint's Ronnie Moas raises bitcoin forecast to $7,500    Standpoint's Ronnie Moas raises bitcoin forecast to $7,500  

1:14 PM ET Mon, 14 Aug 2017 | 00:50

Longtime stock researcher Ronnie Moas raised his price target on bitcoin by $2,500 on Monday after the digital currency hit all-time highs over the weekend.

"What's happening is the floodgates are opening," Moas, founder of Standpoint Research, said in a phone interview with CNBC on Monday. "I believe there are hedge funds and very deep-pocketed individuals going into this now, really hundreds of millions of dollars."

Moas first laid out his views on bitcoin's potential in early July and issued a formal report at the end of last month with a price target of $5,000 for next year.

He told clients Monday he now expects bitcoin to climb nearly 80 percent from the weekend's records to $7,500, and maintained the digital currency could surge to $50,000 in 2027 — representing a 28 percent annual compounded growth rate.

Bitcoin three-month performance

Source: CoinDesk

After bitcoin's uneventful split into bitcoin and bitcoin cash on Aug. 1, bitcoin has soared more than 40 percent to all-time highs.

Bitcoin climbed 5 percent Monday morning to a record high of $4,321.08, more than quadruple in value for the year, according to CoinDesk. At that price, the digital currency has gained about 50 percent in August.

As institutional investor interest in bitcoin grows, Moas expects digital currencies to become part of "strategic reserves" and "asset allocation models in the near future." He also said people in foreign countries will likely want to buy digital currencies as a more stable alternative to their national currencies.

"You can't look at this as a normal situation," he said. "We're in an industry that will probably go from $140 billion to $2 trillion and the bitcoin price will probably move with that."

The total market value of more than 800 digital coins listed on CoinMarketCap.com has climbed from around $20 billion at the start of this year to about $140 billion on Monday. Bitcoin accounts for about half of that value.

Year-to-date change in global value of digital currencies

 

Published by and fro

Source: CoinMarketCap

Another digital currency, ethereum, traded 1 percent higher near $307, according to CoinDesk. Ethereum has shot up more than 3,000 percent this year.

Bitcoin cash, an alternative version of bitcoin supported by a minority of developers, held steady near $300, according to CoinMarketCap.

Moas told CNBC that 100 percent of his investments are in digital currencies, with the majority in bitcoin and ethereum. He said he never invested in the stocks he issued reports on.

He added in his Monday note to clients:

"Any way that I look at these numbers, my forecasts are looking conservative. It looks to me as though we are at the same point in the adoption curve as we were in 1995 when we went from one million internet users to ten million. The following year the Netscape browser came online and we went from 10 million users to hundreds of millions of users overnight.

I expect that within a couple of years we will have between 50 and 100 million cryptocurrency users — up from approximately ~10 million today. We only have 0.15% market penetration right now — if that goes to 2% or 3% we will get to the $50,000 price target that I set at the beginning of July."

 

To be sure, many note that bitcoin remains like the Wild West compared with the established Wall Street market.

"People should understand they're not dealing with the NYSE right now. There's no regulation, there's no face that you can attach to these exchanges," Moas told CNBC, noting his digital currency holdings are spread across five exchanges.

Bitcoin lost more than half its value in 2014 as Mt.Gox, then the largest exchange by far, said it lost about 850,000 bitcoins (worth about half a billion U.S. dollars at the time) and filed for bankruptcy.

This July, the U.S. Department of Justice alleged in an indictment that a "sizeable portion" of the Mt.Gox losses were deposited in accounts controlled, owned and operated by an exchange called BTC-e and a Russian national named Alexander Vinnik. Vinnik was arrested in late July.

— Reuters contributed to this report.

WATCH: How practical is it to live on bitcoin in 2017? We tried it for a week

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Published 10:32 AM ET Mon, 14 Aug 2017  | Updated 11:08 AM ET Tue, 15 Aug 2017

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Thomas Prendergast

Standpoint's Ronnie Moas raises bitcoin forecast to $7,500

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Just because Grindelwald and Dumbledore had a deadly brawl during their quest to revolutionize magic doesn’t mean two great powers cannot be used in concert to change the world. This could be the worst way to start an important conversation about financial technology, but stick with me, it gets more interesting. We are speaking about the world-altering technology of Artificial Intelligence as the first superpower coupled with the financial system disruptive technology of cryptocurrency — a decentralized payment system that circumvents government manipulation of currency and is forcing us to redefine the concept of money. The question is: Can these two technologies be used together to change the way ordinary people like you and me invest our money — without expiring in a shower of blue sparks? “Avada Kedaura!”

But first, let’s take a step back and look into them as individual concepts, with respect to their relationships to investment and trading.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) means software that after its initial programming continues to improve its performance based on experience of the environment it has been set to ‘learn.’ Unlike in movies, where AI is characteristically portrayed as menacing, human-destroying droids, AI software has actually bettered our lives in fields as diverse as healthcare, education, safety, transportation and entertainment. In the field of financial trading, AI has been clandestinely used for two decades to generate profits for hedge funds, banks and other large trading companies.

In its early days, AI trading systems relied on human intervention to provide trade execution but since the rise of electronic exchanges, AI trading has probably changed the character of the world’s markets without the general public’s knowledge.

Today, it is the hedge funds, banks and major international corporations like Goldman Sachs that are reaping the benefits from AI-based trading of forex and stock markets. These companies harness “deep learning” — evolving mathematical and statistical models of prediction and probability — to forecast the short-and-long term outcomes of various financial markets. These models, because of their nature, should be able to track the changes in market condition and therefore continue to improve their performance over time.

Deep learning models aren’t concerned with the fundamentals of the underlying market. They work through pattern recognition, and like their human quantitative analyst counterparts seek the relationships between chart patterns and expected outcomes to generate a return. However, even the most disciplined human trader can be influenced by the fear of loss or greed which may change their trading behavior. AI Bots, however, execute trades consistently without emotion at lightning speed directly onto the exchange, placing and closing trades on behalf of their clients. They stick faithfully to limits, never lose discipline or waver from their assigned course based on the idiosyncrasies of emotion.

Digital Currency Trading

Digital currency trading, which until recently has been mostly centered on bitcoin, has gained momentum in recent years. Since Feb 2011, when bitcoin stood at parity with the US dollar, bitcoin has risen to where it is trading now some six years later at prices between $1,200 and $1,425. The reasons behind Bitcoin’s success are many. Coupled with its decentralized nature which protects it from all good and bad government policies; bitcoin is beginning to be seen as a viable alternative in certain countries where hyper-inflation or lack of confidence in government has rendered the local currency a less attractive alternative. Bitcoin is also becoming easier to manage, simpler to use, safer than carrying paper money and cheap enough to transact and carry, without needing an intermediary.

Despite the last 6 month’s remarkable price increase, bitcoin as an asset class has its share of ills, including periods of extreme market volatility. For example Bitcoin’s limited supply coupled with the inability of governments to intervene to counteract market forces means that bitcoin reacts quickly to market bias. Take for example, the very recent bitcoin ETF buzz: Bitcoin’s price trended northward comfortably ahead of the SEC’s ETF ruling amid growing optimism, hitting a peak of $1,327 a coin. But after the SEC shot down both the Gemini and SolidX bitcoin ETF projects, the price nosedived 20% before rallying within the month back to similar levels.

In addition, shorter term fluctuations can be seen if one looks at intraday bitcoin charts. On average an BTC/USD chart, Bitcoin’s value fluctuates between 10 and 15 USD every 4 hours and sometimes quite a bit higher. For many investors, such fluctuations make bitcoin an uncomfortable investment choice. However, there are day traders who use this volatility to take tidy profits out of the market on a daily basis. These are the traders who are fixed, glued to their computer monitors and mobile screens all day long, tracking the market to enter and exit positions.

So we return to the original question: “can a market as young and volatile as cryptocurrency be successfully partnered with Artificial Intelligence to produce a profitable outcome?

With market capitalizations in the low millions up to low billions, cryptocurrency markets present too small an opportunity to interest most trading banks and hedge funds. They use the power of their deep pockets coupled with AI to generate massive profits from high frequency trading where a few millisecond advantage over competitors can generate big returns.

This means, there is room while cryptocurrency markets are still in their infancy for AI developers to create systems that learn to identify profit opportunities in these young, highly volatile markets. And while a Goldman Sachs may snort at a market cap of 20 billion dollars, investors like you or me would be delighted with this kind of profit. We are starting to see young talent, like the people running the Our AI Bot blog out of the UK. These types of cryptocurrency enthusiasts are coupling their Deep Learning System knowledge with innovation, imagination and an understanding of the inputs that are relevant to predicting digital currency market movement to yield what look like fairly outstanding results.

But many within the cryptocurrency space feel the markets are moving towards mainstream and already there are players like Pantera Capital and banks like Santander and Citibank that are looking at how to generate profits from the cryptocurrency markets. So the window of opportunity for individuals to benefit from what AI can do in digital currency trading is probably limited. The time to look at this opportunity is now – “Expecto Patronum!”

Article by
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Posted by

Thomas Prendergast

Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency Trading

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